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AUTO SECTOR OUTLOOK
The Automotive industry in India is one of the largest in the world
and one of the fastest
growing globally. India manufactures over 18 million vehicles
(including 2 wheeled and 4 wheeled) and exports more than 2.3 million
every year. It is the world's second largest
Manufacturer of motorcycles; there are eight key players in the Indian
markets that produced 13.8 million units in 2010-11.
The major players in the 2-wheeler industry are Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj
Auto Ltd (Bajaj Auto), TVS Motor Company Ltd (TVS) and Honda
Motorcycle & Scooter India Private Limited (HMSI) accounting for over
93% of the sale in the domestic two wheeler market. It is noteworthy
that motorbikes segment's share is just below 80% of the total 2W
market in India which is dominated by Hero MotoCorp with a market
share of 59%. Scooter segment's market share is about 18% which is led
by Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India Private Limited (HMSI) with a
market share of 43%.Threefourth of the total exports in the two
wheeler automobile industry are made in the motorcycle segment.
April to September Two Wheelers Sales Reports in India
In Indian domestic market, sales for 2-wheeler player has been Honda
sales – 13.21%, Bajaj Auto sales – 5.39% Yamaha sales – 37.73%, Suzuki
sales - 39% for the period of April to September 2011 as compared to
same period in 2010. In future there will be intense competition
between Honda, Hero MotoCorp, Suzuki and Yamaha. Looking at the
overall scenario in the two wheeler sector in H1,2011 Bajaj Auto seems
struggling has reported only 5.39 % growth compared to average growth
of 20% in this segment.
Company
H1 2011
H1 2010
% Growth Avg % compared to the Industrial growth of 20%
Hero Moto Corp 3073852 2519973 21.98% + 1.98%
Bajaj Auto 1138910 1080632 5.39% - 14.61%
TVS Motors 971824 854536 13.73% - 6.27 %
Honda Motors 922979 815310 13.21% - 6.79 %
Yamaha 231032 172289 37.73% + 17.73 %
Suzuki 172631 125355 39.12% + 19.12 %
FIERCE COMPETITION:
Hero MotoCorp total capacity in its three plants – Dharuhera and
Gurgaon in Haryana and at Haridwar in Uttarakhand – is about 6.2
million units pa. The company will be increasing its production
capacity to 10 million units pa by an addition of two new plants one
in Sanand, (Gujarat project near Ahmadabad) 100% export oriented and
another in Karnataka.
Honda, who has newly emerged in the Indian market, its second plant
built in Tapukara industrial area of Rajasthan in Alwar is producing
capacity of 6 lacs units /annum. The company is now looking to double
the production capacity in that plant to 12 lacs units /annum by March
2012.
Also, Honda (HMSI) company has started building its third plant in
Narsapur Industrial area, 52 Km away from Banglore Karnatak to expand
it's capacity to 40 lakh units by mid 2013, which will help to reduce
the delivery waiting period from 6 to 8 months. Therefore by the end
of the first half of 2013, Honda's total production capacity will be
40 lacs units /annum.
The TVS Motors is pushing well on moped front. It is also bullish on
export front and exploring new opportunities to expand its export
market. Presently producing 25 lacs units /annum and further
increasing its production capacity to 35 lacs units /annum.
Mahindra, an established auto player has newly entered two and three
wheeler market. It is vigorously making a mark in this new segment
with its strong rural hold (it enjoys a good brand image because of
its tractors) and marketing strategies. They are coming up with
capacity of 70000 units per month soon.
Suzuki is all set to rage on the Indian market by increasing its
production capacity to 5.4 lacs units / annum from the current 2.5
lacs units / annum by the year 2012.
While Yamaha currently produces 5 lacs units /annum, it is looking to
raise this production capacity to 10 lacs units / annum by 2013 and
also aims to sell out up to 8,00,000 units in domestic markets
together with 2,00,000 exports.
Piaggio is penetrating in the two wheeler industry in India in an
ambitious way by setting up an assembly plant in Baramati near Pune
where the inputs will be 80% imported. They have already appointed 70
dealers throughout India. They are coming up with attractive
variations of bikes in January 2012.
Bajaj is not in any process of increasing its capacity. They are
facing constraints to sell off their current capacity to the fullest
and there is no news of any other new plant as the competitors.
In three wheeler, Mahindra & Mahindra, Piaggio, TVS are capturing
market firmly. TVS is tripling its capacity to 8000 units / month for
three wheelers. Italian based Piaggio is increasing its capacity to
40000 units / month.
MARKET RESEARCH ON TWO WHEELER SECTOR IN INDIA:-
According to market research performed on consumers, the most
preferred brand of two-wheelers is Honda, followed by Hero MotoCorp,
Yamaha and then followed by Bajaj and TVS. This signifies the market
share of Bajaj to be 16.5% in domestic market. Bajaj's market share
has been decreasing tremendously over the years and picturing the
current scenario, it is further expected to fall to 15% in next 6
months and less than 10% in one year due to doubling production
capacity of Honda, Yamaha and Suzuki.
OPM & POLICY PRESSURES TO INCREASE SEQUENTIALLY :-
Input costs have increased recently following the spurt in steel,
rubber and aluminum prices. Thus, Margins of Auto universe is expected
to contract sequentially to reflect higher input costs. This will
result in very high operating margin pressure.
With Government withdrawing DEPB (Duty Entitlement Passbook Scheme)
benefit scheme for exporters, Bajaj auto leading exporter will face
severe problems in terms of their fall in export profit margin by 8%.
Rajiv Bajaj, MD, Bajaj Auto stated his concern regarding the fall in
export to take place due to withdrawing of DEPB scheme and increasing
competition from China market in exports. He also shared his worry
about further slowdown expected in two wheelers in India.
VALUATION:-
In recent years, the Indian two-wheeler (2W) industry has shown a
strong volume growth
over the last two-years, having grown by 25% in 2009-10 and 27% in
2010-11 to reach 13.3 million units. This strong double-digit growth
has been driven by multiple factors.
Currently, India's increasing per capita disposable income which is
expected to
rise by 106% by 2015 and growth in exports is playing a major role in
the rise and
competitiveness of the industry.
CONCLUSION:
With an expanding market and entry of new players over the last few
years, the Indian two wheeler industry is now approaching a stage of
maturity.
Indian player getting affected due to entry of Foreign player:-
Just like in Television Industry, Onida, an Indian player got affected
due to entry of foreign player like LG, Sony and Samsung and in Fridge
Industry, Godrej, Kelvinator and Voltas got affected because of
Whirlpool, Samsung and LG or in Air conditioner Industry, Voltas and
Carrier got affected because of Hitachi, Daikin and OGENERAL and in 4
- Wheeler Industry, Fiat and Ambassador got affected because of
Suzuki, Hyundai and Chevrolet. In the same way in 2 - Wheeler segment
Bajaj and TVS is getting affected due to entry of foreign player like
Honda, Suzuki, Yamaha and Piaggio.
Looking at the overall scenario, it seems that the golden period for
the Indian 2- wheeler segment has ended and it may grow at double
digit but the growth rate will be around 10-12% or may be even less
for the rest of the financial year.
DISCLAIMER: - Smart Profit has taken due care and caution in
compilation of data for its reports. The market view and investment
tips expressed on Smart Profit are in no way a guarantee either
express or implied. However, Smart Profit does not guarantee the
accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not
responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained
from the use of such information. CEO, Directors and staff may have a
position in the recommended stock.
FOR FURTHER DETAILS CONTACT:-
SUMAN JAIN
(CEO)
+919820041126
Email: sumanjain@smartprofit.in
ANKITA JAIN
(Director)
+919819854402
Email: ankita@smartprofit.in
DIPAK MANGELA
(Research Analyst)
+919820260291
Email: dipak.mangela@smartprofit.in
MANSINGH RAI
(Sr. Executive)
+919320907684
Email: mansingh.rai@smartprofit.in
SHAILESH GOWDA
(Sr. Executive)
+919967394114
Email: shailesh.gowda@smartprofit.in
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الموقع الاول للمتعة و السعادة الجنسية و الزوجية +18
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الموقع الاول للمتعة و السعادة الجنسية و الزوجية +18
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10 reasons to SELL BAJAJ AUTO
1. In Indian domestic market, Two-Wheelers segment average
growth is 20% while bajaj Auto growth is only 5.39 %.
2. Hero MotoCorp is increasing its production capacity to 10
million while Honda is emerging in a very big way and it is doubling
its production capacity to 4 million within a year. Suzuki is also
doubling its production capacity and Yamaha is on a verge of tripling
its production capacity.
3. On an export front, Hero MotoCorp has set up 1.2 lacs/month
production capacity plant in Sanand (Gujarat project near Ahmedabad)
dedicated 100% export and Honda, through its China plant has
introduced its new variant (pricing 31,000 INR) in Nigerian and South
African market (Nigeria and South Africa contribute 50% export sales
of Bajaj Auto). Hero MotoCorp has initiated its distribution network
in all the 11 countries where Bajaj is exporting.
4. Italian based Piaggio is also penetrating in the two-wheeler
segments with attractive variations of bikes by January 2012.
5. In three-wheeler segment, Piaggio is increasing its capacity
to 40000 units / month while TVS is tripling its capacity to 8000
units / month.
6. With Government withdrawing DEPB (Duty Entitlement Passbook
Scheme) benefit scheme for exporters, Bajaj auto will face severe
problems in terms of their fall in export profit margin.
7. For the next two years in the domestic market, Two-Wheelers
segment average growth may be 8% to 10% as compared to previous two
years where average growth has been 20%.
8. According to market research performed on consumers the most
preferred brand of two-wheelers is Honda which will replace Bajaj's
2nd position by January 2012 & by April -12, bajaj will downgrade to
4th position giving its way to TVS in Indian market.
9. Recent increased Input costs following the spurt in steel,
rubber and aluminum prices, will result in very high operating margin
pressure for bajaj auto.
10. To maintain the profit margin, Bajaj Auto is compromising on
its quality and neglecting the marketing promotion strategy.
DISCLAIMER:- Smart Profit has taken due care and caution in
compilation of data for its reports. The market view and investment
tips expressed on Smart Profit are in no way a guarantee either
express or implied. However, Smart Profit does not guarantee the
accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not
responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained
from the use of such information. CEO, Directors and staff may have a
position in the recommended stock.
Contact Details
DIPAK MANGELA
(Research Analyst)
Email: dipak.mangela@smartprofit.in
Tel : 9820260291
MANSINGH RAI
(Senior Executive)
Email: mansingh.rai@smartprofit.in
Tel : 9320907684
SHAILESH GOWDA
(Senior Executive)
Email: shailesh.gowda@smartprofit.in
Tel : 9967394114
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BAJAJ AUTO LTD OVERPRICED
Bajaj Auto Ltd, the 2nd largest manufacturer of two-wheelers in India,
reported less growth compared to its peers and its production
constrains, decreasing brand image, market acceptance.
Its not far that within 6 months Bajaj will downgrade to 4th position
from its 2nd position in two wheeler giving its way to Honda & TVS in
Indian market.
In Indian market, growth for the period of April to August 2011 as
compared to same period in 2010, Bajaj Auto sales has been 5% as
compared to Hero MotoCorp sales - 21%, Honda sales – 8%, Yamaha sales
- 36%, Suzuki sales - 42%, which clearly indicates the downgrade in
Bajaj Auto.
FIERCE COMPETITION:
Honda, who has newly emerged in the Indian market, is presently
producing 1.62 lacs units /month it is further increasing its capacity
to produce 2.5 lacs units /month, while its second plant in Alwar
(Rajasthan) has producing capacity of 6 lacs units /annum. The company
is now looking to double the production capacity in that plant to 12
lacs units /annum by March 2012. It is also planning to set up a new
third plant in Bangalore, which will help to reduce the delivery
waiting period from 6 to 8 months. The operations for the third plant
are reported to be commencing in the first half of 2013 with a
capacity of 12 lacs units /annum. Therefore by the end of the first
half of 2013, Honda's total production capacity will be 40 lacs units /
annum.
Hero MotoCorp, the market leader in this sector is continuously
posting double digit growth with robust sales each month. It is
currently producing 60 lacs units /annum and increasing its production
capacity to 72 lacs units /annum. In addition to this they are also
planning for 100% export oriented plant in Sanand, Gujarat
The TVS Motors is pushing well on moped front. It is also bullish on
export front and exploring new opportunities to expand its export
market. The company presently producing 25 lacs units /annum and
further increasing its production capacity to 35 lacs units /annum.
Mahindra, an established auto player has newly entered two and three
wheeler market. It is vigorously making a mark in this new segment
with its strong rural hold (it enjoys a good brand image because of
its tractors) and marketing strategies. They are coming up with
capacity of 70000 units per month soon.
Suzuki is all set to rage on the Indian market by increasing its
production capacity to 5.4 lacs units / annum from the current 2.5
lacs units / annum by the year 2012.
While Yamaha currently produces 6 lacs units /annum, it is looking to
raise this production capacity to 10 lacs units / annum by 2013 and
also aims to sell out up to 8,00,000 units in domestic markets
together with 2,00,000 exports.
Bajaj is not in any process of increasing its capacity. They are
facing constraints to sell off their current capacity to the fullest.
Bajaj is not introducing any of its new variant as well. And there is
no news of any other new plant as the competitors.
In three wheeler, Mahindra & Mahindra, Piaggio, TVS are capturing
market firmly. TVS is tripling its capacity to 8000 units / month for
three wheelers. Italian based Piaggio is increasing its capacity to
40000 units / month.
This fierce competition in two and three wheeler sector is affecting
Bajaj's survival in industry.
MARKET RESEARCH ON TWO WHEELER SECTOR IN INDIA:-
According to market research performed on consumers, the most
preferred brand of two-wheelers is Honda, followed by Hero MotoCorp,
Suzuki and then followed by Bajaj and TVS.
In Indian two wheeler market, Bajaj Auto's market share has been
decreasing from 35% in 2006 to 16.5% in August 2011. The increasing
expansion of competitors, fuel price hike, increase in prices of two
wheelers, unsatisfactory quality of product and negligible marketing
promotion strategy of Bajaj with decreasing market share signifies its
downfall in auto industry.
On the domestic front, Bajaj Auto sold 2 lakh units of two wheelers.
Consolidating the overall two wheelers sold in August 2011 by all the
players, we can sum upto 12 lakh units have been sold in India for
this month(Hero MotoCorp - 5,03,654, Bajaj – 199829, TVS- 1,63,705,
Honda- 1,60,666, Suzuki- 26,897,Yamaha- 39,490, Mahindra- 15,120,
Others like LML, Kinetic, Yo bikes- 90000) . This signifies the market
share of Bajaj to be 16.5% in domestic market. Bajaj's market share
has been decreasing tremendously over the years and picturing the
current scenario, it is further expected to fall to 15% in next 6
months and less than 10% in one year, due to Honda's Alwar plant.
We interacted with Bajaj Auto dealers and as they said, Bajaj is
increasing inventory with their dealers and distributors. Thus the
sales recorded by Bajaj in last 5 months are not consumer sale but the
inventory sale of dealers and distributors. Hero MotoCorp & Honda has
waiting period ranging from 4 - 8 months whereas Bajaj's bikes are
overstocked with the dealers. A dealer's sale ranges from 150- 500
units per month depending on the area, but the inventory stock is
300-1200. Acceptance of Bajaj in market has gone for a toss. Dealers
have reported dissatisfaction for Bajaj. They say Bajaj have been
compromising on quality to reduce cost in order to face competition as
they can't further increase their price. They have reduced their
marketing promotion to this level that dealers are not provided with
sufficient marketing accessories like brochures and pamphlets.
OPM PRESSURES TO INCREASE SEQUENTIALLY :-
Input costs have increased recently following the spurt in steel,
rubber and aluminum prices. Thus, Margins of Auto universe is expected
to contract sequentially to reflect higher input costs. This will
result in very high operating margin pressure.
The leader in this segment Hero Honda is a better performer with
increasing market share in last 1 year. Its share price rose by 15 %
whereas Bajaj 's share price rose by 300% in last one year i.e. Bajaj
Auto is only operated base not fundamental.
2 years back Bajaj was trading at 300 share price. On August, 2011 the
stock touched 1650 after 1:1 bonus i.e.3300 which is more than 1000%
increase in price. This is not fundamentally or technically justified.
Fundamentally, Bajaj is losing its ground by decreasing market share
and expecting it to fall further.
Thus studying the fundamental and technical aspect of Bajaj Auto, it
is trading at its highest level and we recommend a STRONG SELL on
Bajaj Auto at CMP 1600 with target it falling down to 1100 soon.
DISCLAIMER:- Smart Profit has taken due care and caution in
compilation of data for its reports. The market view and investment
tips expressed on Smart Profit are in no way a guarantee either
express or implied. However, Smart Profit does not guarantee the
accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not
responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained
from the use of such information. CEO, Directors and staff may have a
position in the recommended stock.
FOR FUTHER DETAILS CONTACT:-
SUMAN JAIN
(CEO)
+919820041126
Email: sumanjain@smartprofit.in
ANKITA JAIN
(Director)
+91981854402
Email: ankita@smartprofit.in
DIPAK MANGELA
(Research Analyst)
+919820260291
Email: dipak.mangela@smartprofit.in
MANSINGH RAI
(Sr. Executive)
+919320907684
Email: mansingh.rai@smartprofit.in
SHAILESH GOWDA
(Sr. Executive)
+919967394114
Email: shailesh.gowda@smartprofit.in
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SMART PROFIT LATEST PICK
BUY NATIONAL HYDRO POWER CORPORATION (533098)
CMP: 25
Target: 40 in 6 months
National Hydro Power Corporation, an entity of Government of India, is
country's largest hydro power producer.
NHPC is currently having an installed capacity of more than 5,300 MW
with 14 operational power stations and has a cash surplus of over Rs.
4,000 crore.
National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC) has reported a net
profit of Rs 966 crore in the second quarter of FY12, a growth of 40%
as compared to Rs 690 crore in the corresponding quarter of last
fiscal.
Net sales jumped 47.66% to Rs 1,831 crore in the July-September period
of 2011 versus Rs 1,240 crore in same quarter the previous year.
The second quarter is a seasonally favorable quarter which contributes
bulk of full-year earnings.
Total revenue shot up 54% to Rs 1,981.5 crore from Rs 1,282.6 crore Y-
o-Y.
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA)
rose 35% to Rs 1,416 crore from Rs 1,049 crore during the same period.
The state-run major is engaged in the construction of 10 projects at
various locations in the country, going to have an additional capacity
of 4,502 MW. It is planning to develop two hydro projects in Myanmar.
It plans to increase the capacity to over 10,000 MW by end of 2012.
The coal price has raised, which will forced to increase in power
price by 20%. This will further boost the profit margin of NHPC to a
large extent.
Spanning on Government's increasing emphasis on hydro power and NHPC's
strong hold, we recommend a BUY on NHPC at CMP of Rs 25, with a target
of Rs.40 in 6 months.
BUY TATA COMMUNICATION (500483)
CMP: 184
Target: 250 in 4 months
Tata Communications Limited along with its global subsidiaries (Tata
Communications) is a leading global provider of the new world of
communications. The Tata Global Network encompasses one of the most
advanced and largest submarine cable networks, a Tier-1 IP network,
connectivity to more than 200 countries across 400 PoPs and more than
10 lac square feet data center space. Tata Communications serves its
customers from its offices in 80 cities in 40 countries worldwide.
The number one global international wholesale voice operator and
number one provider of International Long Distance, Enterprise Data
and Internet Services in India (famously known as TATA PHOTON+), the
company was named "Best Wholesale Carrier" at the World Communications
Awards and was named the "Best Pan-Asian Wholesale Provider"
Tata Communications and Essar Telecom Kenya (yuMobile), a unit of
Essar Group, announced the signing of a mutually beneficial strategic
sourcing agreement, Tata Communications will benefit from the
increasing demand for high quality voice services in Africa generated
by a rapid rise in the number of mobile subscribers on the continent
Tata Communications Ltd. is a part of the $6740 Crore Tata Companies;
it is listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock
Exchange of India and its ADRs are listed on the New York Stock
Exchange (NYSE: TCL).
Total income rose to Rs.3294.33 Crore during the April-June quarter of
2011, compared to Rs.2900.44 crore in the same period last year.
Tata communication has made conscious efforts to diversify from its
core wholesale voice business and tap the higher margin managed
services and cloud business.
We believe the stock is a good opportunity point as long term drivers
are intact as addressable market opportunity leaves tremendous scope
for expansion stock may go up by 40%.
We recommend 'BUY' on the stock at CMP Rs.184 with a target price of
Rs. 250 in 4 months
BUY RURAL ELECTRIFICATION CORPORATION LIMITED (REC) (532955)
CMP: 193
Target: 300
REC, under Ministry of Power, was incorporated on July 25, 1969 under
the Companies Act 1956. REC a listed Public Sector Enterprise
Government of India with a net worth of Rs. 12,784 Crore as on
31.03.11.
REC provides loan assistance to SEBs/State Power Utilities for
investments in rural electrification schemes through its Corporate
Office located at New Delhi and 17 field units (Project Offices),
which are located in most of the States.
The company has been rated among the top 500 Global Financial Services
brands for 2010 by UK-based plc Brand Finance. REC is also among the
Forbes Global 2000 companies for 2010.
The total income of the company rose by 23.02% in the quarter under
review at Rs.2,372.88 crore ended June 30, 2011 as compared to Rs.
1,928.77 crore in the first quarter of the last fiscal.
With a strong sanctions pipeline (INR1.6 trillion), loan growth is
likely to be healthy at 22% CAGR over FY11-13. Loan book grew 24% Y-o-
Y and 5% Q-o-Q to INR858 billion.
We have a 'BUY' rating on the stock at CMP of Rs.193 due to REC's
robust long-term business outlook and valuations considering
compounded earnings growth of 25% and average return on equity (RoE)
of 22% over 2011-12.
BUY FIRSTSOURCE SOLUTION (532809)
CMP: 11
Target: 25
Formerly known as ICICI OneSource, incorporated in 2001, Firstsource
Solutions Limited provides a range of business process outsourcing
services.
It offers business process management services to the banking,
financial services and insurance (BFSI); telecommunications and media;
and healthcare industries. Firstsource has a "rightshore" delivery
model with operations in India, U.S., UK and Philippines.
INVESTMENT VIEW:-
Firstsource Recognized with Top Honors at the International Quality
and Productivity Council (IQPC) Conference
Leadership position in the healthcare industry
About 40% of the revenue comes from its healthcare vertical catering
mainly to US markets
Divestment of Stake
Stable relationships with existing clients
The Company works with more than 1000 clients. 7 of the top 10 clients
have grown during the quarter.
Foreign Exchange Hedges
Outstanding FX hedge at $ 31million and £ 35million for USD and GBP
respectively.
Employee Strength
29,664 (as of 30th, June 2011) added 1,759 employees in this quarter.
Firstsource Solutions has reported a sales turnover of Rs 182.84 crore
and a net profit of Rs 7.17 crore for the quarter ended Jun '11.
For the quarter ended Mar 2011 the sales turnover was Rs 182.96 crore
and net profit was Rs 14.61 crore.
In spite of Q1 being a seasonally weaker Quarter, but considering the
strong performance both on revenues and profitability. We recommend a
Buy on FSL at CMP Rs.11 with a target price of Rs.25 within 9 months.
BUY AREVA T&D (522275)
CMP: 215
Target: 300
India Ltd, the Indian subsidiary of AREVA France SA, engages in the
design and manufacture of equipment, systems, and services for
transmission and distribution of electricity in India.
Areva managed to retain its leadership position for the third year has
reported a sales turnover of Rs 998.86 crore and a net profit of Rs
26.26 crore for the quarter ended Jun '11.
Eight new factories were built at three locations: Vadodora in
Gujarat, Hosur and Padappai in Tamilnadu.
The comply of Areva T&D India's business at global level by the
Consortium of Alstom-Schneider continues to fortify on the stock.
Although the signs of recovery are emerging Areva T&D India wins
contract for 765 kV Extra High Voltage Substation from Rajasthan Raja
Vidyut Prasaran Nigam Ltd (RRVPNL) worth close to 4000 MINR, the stock
is currently trading at lower valuations that contradict the
fundamental.
On 4th Oct, 2011, Government has enforce 14% Import duty on Power
Generation & Distribution Equipment which will directly benefit to
Areva T&D
Building on the strong operating performance with relatively low
interest and depreciation cost as proportion to sales and lower tax
incidence, we expect company to register CAGR of 13.5% respectively.
We expect the stock perform dominant in earning at CMP Rs. 215 with a
target price of Rs. 300.
BUY HOTEL LEELA (500193)
CMP: 41
Target: 60
India's fifth-biggest luxury hotel chain founded in 1957. Leela Group
is engaged in the business of ready-made garments and luxury hotels
and resorts.
Hotel Leela venture, plans to raise funds through divest as much as
14.95% stake through a fresh issue of shares to unnamed investor(s)
and besides monetize its land bank by selling non-core assets
including a major portion of a commercial office space next to its
hotel in Chennai. It expects to generate about Rs 950 crore from such
sale of land and joint development, which would be used for reducing
its debt. The other decision to sell a stake will bring around Rs 270
crore ($60 million) additionally as cash into the firm, according to
estimates based on current market price. The strategic or financial
investor will pick just a tad less than 15% stake that would trigger
an open offer.
India is one of the fastest growing tourist markets in the world
inherently rooted concept of hospitality in form of "Ätithi Devo
bhava" . At present, this Company operates six hotels at the locations
viz. Mumbai, Bangalore, Goa, Kovalam, Udaipur and Gurgaon comprising
1523 guest rooms and 90 serviced apartments.
Hotel Leela venture has signed a pact with Travancore Enterprises to
transfer its hotel property in Kerala to a special purpose vehicle
(SPV), which would be overtaken by the latter for Rs 500 crore.
Hotel Leela adding 260 rooms in Delhi and 332 rooms in Chennai
properties.
With an ever increasing demand in tourism business synergizing with
growth plans of Leela, we recommend a BUY at current level of Rs.41
with target of Rs.60.
BUY TATA TELESERVICES (532371)
CMP: 18
Target: 30
Tata Teleservices Limited spearheads the Tata Group's presence in the
telecom sector. The Tata Group includes over 90 companies, over
395,000 employees worldwide and more than 3.5 million shareholders.
It launched mobile operations in January 2005 under the brand name
Tata Indicom and today enjoys a pan-India presence through existing
operations in all of India's 22 telecom Circles.
Tata Teleservices Limited also has a significant presence in the GSM
space, through its joint venture with NTT DOCOMO of Japan, and offers
differentiated products and services under the Tata DOCOMO brand name.
Today, Tata Teleservices Ltd, along with Tata Teleservices
(Maharashtra) Ltd, serves over 85 million customers in more than
450,000 towns and villages across the country.
The Company showed a 7% growth in year-on-year revenues at Rs 620
crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2011, compared to Rs 582
crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Its posted
net profit of Rs 130.2 crore.
The Company maintained a strong focus on wireless broadband services,
and its VAS and data revenues accounted for 33.3 % of total wireless
revenues in Q2 of FY 11-12.
Going forward we expect the company to maintain quarterly addition of
0.5 million subscriber in FY12, which signifies an addition of 20
million subscribers in a year.
We expect the upgrade to 3G to boost average revenue per user, premium
services may take time to pick up in a price sensitive market such as
India. The overall performance of the company looks encouraging. At
CMP of Rs 18 .We have a BUY rating on the stock with the target price
of Rs 30.
BUY POWER GRID CORPORATION OF INDIA (532898)
CMP: 106
Target: 150 in 9 months
Power Grid Corporation of India, the Central Transmission Utility
(CTU) of the country under the Ministry of Power.
Central Transmission Utility - Navaratna PSU - Asset of Rs. 50352 Crs
as on March 31, 2011. World's Leading Power Transmission Utility -
82,354 Ckt.Km line-135 Substations . Technology Leader in EHVAC & HVDC
Transmission.
Carries 51% of Generated Power Across Country.
• 93,050 MVA Transformation Capacity
• 22400 MW (Approx) Interregional Capacity
Telecom NLD with 20733 Km Optical Fiber Network & Internet Service
Provider
Capital expenditure for FY12 is expected to be around Rs 16700 crore.
For the 12th plan, company's capital expenditure is expected to be
around Rs 100,000-120,000 crore in which about 52,000 km of
transmission lines, 70 sub-stations and transmission capacity of
1,36,000 MVA are to be added. The management has guided for
capitalization of Rs 10,000 crore in FY12. Higher capitalization
should aid top line growth. Company has more than 50% of the market
share of the transmission sector and this is expected to increase.
Power Grid Corporation of India has reported a net profit of Rs 709
crore for the Q2 of FY12, a growth of 8.9% as compared to Rs 651 crore
in the corresponding quarter of last fiscal.
Revenue from operations increased 6.44% to Rs 2,264 crore from Rs
2,127 crore Y-oY.
Due to Power Grid's robust long-term business outlook, valuations and
on a strong fundamental basis, we have a 'BUY' rating on the stock at
CMP of Rs 106 with target price of Rs.150 in 9 months.
BUY NEYVELI LIGNITE CORPORATION LIMITED (513683)
CMP: 82
Target: 150 in 9 months
NLC is a government-owned lignite mining Indian company, which is
wholly owned by the Union Government (49%) and administered via coal
ministry. It is recently announced as "Navratna" by Government of
India in April 2011. NLC Neyveli spreads over an area of around 54
square km, comprising Neyveli Township and temporary colonies around
32 blocks. The company runs the biggest open-pit lignite mines in
India and mines around 2.4 Crore tonnes of lignite annually for fuel,
with an installed capacity of 2490 MW of electricity per annum.
NLC now elaborated its project to Rajasthan also in mining as well as
thermal stations, 3 big mines also supplies a huge amount of sweet
water to Chennai. The Tamil Nadu electricity board has a JV with the
Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd (NLC) for two projects – A 1000-MW
coal-based project at Tuticorin in southy Tamil Nadu at the cost of Rs.
4000 crore and the Jayamkondam lignite power project at a cost of Rs.
5000 crore for 1000 – MW power plant. The company has also planned to
develop clean coal technologies like extraction of coal bed methane
(CBM) and Underground coal gasification for which several steps have
been taken. The coal priced has raised, due to which Central Govt. has
forced SEB to increase Electricity Power tariff by 20%, which will
directly benefit NLC for ownership of their mines.
Neyveli Lignite Corporation has posted a net profit of Rs 3.43 billion
for the quarter ended June 30, 2011 as compared to Rs 3.42 billion for
the quarter ended June 30, 2010 representing marginal increase of
0.29%.
Total income has increased from Rs 12.58 billion for the quarter ended
June 30, 2010 to Rs 14.25 billion for the quarter ended June 30, 2011,
representing increase of 13.28%.
Neyveli Lignite is an open-cast mechanized lignite mine. The Company
has 50 % joint venture with Tamil Nadu Electricity Board and its
announced its plans to invest about Rs.36,900 crore on power
generation and mining capacity augmentation by 2017. The plan also
includes development of power projects using other fuel feed. The
company is also planning to invest Rs.40,200 crore to build power
plants in Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.
Strong expansion & diversification plans to explore coal-based, wind
and solar power generation projects will add on strength to the
cashbook.
We recommend 'BUY' on the stock at CMP Rs. 82 with a target price of
Rs. 150 in 9 months
DISCLAIMER:- Smart Profit has taken due care and caution in
compilation of data for its reports. The market view and investment
tips expressed on Smart Profit are in no way a guarantee either
express or implied. However, Smart Profit does not guarantee the
accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not
responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained
from the use of such information. CEO, Directors and staff may have a
position in the recommended stock.
FOR FUTHER DETAILS CONTACT:-
SUMAN JAIN
(CEO)
+919820041126
Email: sumanjain@smartprofit.in
DIPAK MANGELA
(Research Analyst)
+919820260291
Email: dipak.mangela@smartprofit.in
MANSINGH RAI
(Sr. Executive)
+919320907684
Email: mansingh.rai@smartprofit.in
SHAILESH GOWDA
(Sr. Executive)
+919967394114
Email: shailesh.gowda@smartprofit.in
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Your first 3 minutes are FREE talking live with me.
Please visit my website at: http://www.keen.com/Ask+Fran
Or, call me right now at: 1-800-275-5336 x0160
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Or, call me right now at: 1-800-275-5336 x0160
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